The U.S. military strikes President Donald Trump ordered on Iran's nuclear facilities last weekend did not completely destroy the country's nuclear program but likely set it back by a few months, according to two people familiar with an early intelligence assessment.
The initial report, which is classified, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency with the help of U.S. Central Command. The findings are expected to evolve with time as the Defense Department and broader intelligence community collect more information on the three nuclear sites, which were hit by massive bunker-buster bombs in what was the largest B-2 strike in U.S. history. Military officials have said there is no doubt the sites sustained significant damage but that a "battle damage assessment" would take time to complete.
According to the two people familiar with the DIA's early findings, the bombing sealed off the entrances to two of the nuclear sites but that most of the damage was done to structures above ground, leaving the lower structures intact. The assessment also found that at least some enriched uranium had been moved from the nuclear sites ahead of the blasts and that centrifuges are largely intact.
According to a third official who read the DIA report, the assessment includes a disclaimer at the top of the classified document noting that a full battle damage assessment will require "days to weeks to accumulate the necessary data to assess the effects on the target system."
"This product has not been coordinated with the intelligence community," the report states.
Among the other agencies that will weigh in will include the CIA, National Security Agency and Energy Department.
If eventually confirmed by other intelligence sources, the findings would directly conflict with Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's public insistence that Iran's nuclear program had been "obliterated." CNN first reported details on the DIA report.
When asked to comment, the White House and Defense Department doubled down on their insistence that the U.S. military attack was successful and Iran's nuclear program was indeed destroyed.
"Based on everything we have seen -- and I've seen it all -- our bombing campaign obliterated Iran's ability to create nuclear weapons," Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote in a statement emailed to reporters.
"Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target—and worked perfectly. The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran; so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission," he added.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also disputed the finding, alleging it was leaked to CNN by a "low-level loser."
"This assessment and the leak is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran's nuclear program. Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration," she wrote in a statement.
Lawmakers were scheduled to briefed on the U.S. strike on Friday.
Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in an interview on Fox News on Tuesday that believed Iran's nuclear capabilities had been set back significantly, calling the difference of the bombing as "night and day." But when asked about where Iran potentially moved the enriched uranium, Grossi said the IAEA does not know and stressed the need for inspection activity to resume.
"We do not have information of the whereabouts of this material," he said. "The way to assert that is to allow the inspection activity to resume as soon as possible and this would be for the benefit of all."
In a statement to the U.N. Security Council, Grossi confirmed the entrances to the tunnels of the Isfahan nuclear site were hit. He also noted that “at this time, no one -- including the IAEA -- is in a position to have fully assessed the underground damage at Fordow.”
Amirhossein Sabeti, a member of parliament representing Tehran, called on parliament to block IAEA inspectors from observing Iran's nuclear program.
"Not only have Iran’s nuclear infrastructures remained intact, but Israel will soon suffer a more significant blow -- when, with the majority vote of parliament, the entry of the IAEA’s spy inspectors into Iran will be blocked. After two decades of transparency, Iran’s nuclear activities will no longer be visible to inspectors, and the West will soon have to get used to 'ambiguity around Iran’s nuclear programme,'" he said.
Experts appeared divided on how much confidence to put into the DIA report.
Joseph Cirincione, vice-chair of the Center for International Policy Board of Directors, called the assessment "devastating," noting that it came from an intelligence agency known to be more conservative in its findings.
"They have failed to achieve their objective," Cirincione told
"What did the military strike actually accomplish? Nothing. It was a $2 billion fireworks show."
But others said they were skeptical of the assessment.
David Albright, the founder and president of the nonprofit Institute for Science and International Security, said in a social media post that he suspects Iran lost close to 20,000 centrifuges at two of the nuclear sites and would likely face future military strikes if it tries to reconstitute its nuclear program.
“More analysis and information will be required to completely ascertain the true state of Iran's enrichment and other nuclear capabilities,” he wrote. “But to reduce what has happened to a worst case assessment, while it has value, is misleading to say the least.”
In his most recent comments Tuesday morning, Trump told reporters, "I think it's been completely demolished."
